Macro

2026-10-06 20:14 ET

Valuation

Elevated

CAPE 49.1 · Buffett 287%

Cycle

Expansion

Sahm 0.00 · 10y−2y +0.48 pp

Mood

Ordinary

VIX 16 · HY OAS 3.12%

Buffett287%

CAPE49.1

S&P P/E44.4

E/P − 10y-3.1 pp

Fed funds3.88%

30y5.66%

10y5.31%

30y mtg7.28%

10y−2y+0.48 pp

Sahm0.00

CPI3.4%

Core PCE3.0%

M2 YoY5.7%

VIX15.5

HY OAS3.12%

S&P7,819

Valuation of the field

Buffett indicator — Buffett indicator

Shiller P/E (CAPE) — Shiller P/E (CAPE)

S&P TTM P/E — S&P TTM P/E

Rates & the curve

Fed policy — Fed policy

Treasury yields — Treasury yields

Yield curve — Yield curve

Prime & mortgages — Prime & mortgages

The cycle

GDP & unemployment — GDP & unemployment

Sahm rule — Sahm rule

Prices & money

Inflation — Inflation

Money stock — Money stock

Mr. Market’s mood

Indexes — Indexes

VIX — VIX